Foreword
This report presents the results of the Office of Technology Assessment's analysis of the prospects for developing automobiles that offer significant improvements in fuel economy and reduced emissions over the longer term (out to the year 2015). The congressional request for this study from the House Committees on Commerce and on Science, and the Senate Committees on Energy and Natural Resources and on Governmental Affairs-asked OTA to exam- ine the potential for dramatic increases in light-duty vehicle fuel economy through the use of "breakthrough" technologies, and to assess the federal role in advancing the development and commercialization of these technologies.
The report examines the likely costs and performance of a range of technologies and vehicle types, and the U.S. and foreign research and development programs for these technologies and vehicles (to allow completion of this study before OTA closed its doors, issues such as infrastructure development and market develop- ment---critical to the successful commercialization of advanced vehicles-were not covered). In particular, the report presents a baseline forecast of vehicle progress in a business-as-usual environment, and then projects the costs and performance of "advanced conventional" vehicles that retain conventional drivetrains (internal combustion engine plus transmission); electric vehicles: hybrid vehicles that com- bine electric drivetrains with an engine or other power source; and fuel cell vehi- cles. OTA has focused on mass-market vehicles, particularly on the mid-size family car with perfonnance comparable to those available to consumers today. Based on our analysis, OTA is quite optimistic that very high levels of fuel economy-up to three times current averages are technically achievable by 2015; attaining these levels at a commercially viable price will be a more difficult challenge, however.
This report is the last in a series on light-duty vehicles that OTA has produced over the past five years. Previous topics include alternative fuels (Replacing Gaso- line: Alternative Fuels for Light-Duty Vehicles); near-term prospects for improving fuel economy (Improving Automobile Fuel Economy: New Standards, New Approaches); and vehicle retirement programs (Retiring Old Cars: Programs To Save Gasoline and Improve Air Quality). OTA also has recently published a more general report on reducing oil use in transportation (Saving Energy in U.S. Trans- portation).
OTA is grateful to members of its Advisory Panel, participants in workshops on vehicle safety and technology, other outside reviewers, and the many individuals and companies that offered information and advice and hosted OTA staff on their information-gathering trips. Special thanks are due to K.G. Duleep, who provided the bulk of the technical and cost analysis of technologies and advanced vehicles.
ROGER C. HERDMAN
Director
Advisory Panel
Don Kash
Chairperson Professor of Public Policy George Mason University
Steve Barnett
Principal Global Business Network
Ron Blum
Senior Auto Analyst International Union United Auto Workers
Tom Cackette
Chief Deputy Executive Officer California Air Resources Board
Malcolm R. Currie
Chairman M-B Resources, Inc.
John DeCicco
Senior Research Associate American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy
Kennerly H. Digges
Assistant Director National Crash Analysis Office Center George Washington University
Christopher Flavin
Vice President for Research Worldwatch Institute
Christopher Green
Director General Motors NAO R&D Center
Dave Greene
Senior Research Staff Center for Transportation Analysis Oak Ridge National Laboratory
Maurice Isaac
Manager
Automotive Technical Programs GE Automotive
Mary Ann Keller
Managing Director Furnan, Selz, Inc.
Gunnar Larsson
Vice President of Research Volkswagen AG
Marianne Mintz
Transportation Systems Engineer Environmental & Economic Analysis Section Argonne National Laboratories
Robert Mull
Director Partnership for a New Generation of Vehicles Ford Motor Co.
Nobukichi Nakamura
Project General Manager Toyota Motors
Peter T. Peterson
Director, Marketing Strategies and Product Applications U.S. Steel
Daniel Roos
Director
Center for Technology, Policy and Industrial Development Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Rhett Ross
Sales Manager/Engineer Energy Partners
Dan Santini
Section Manager Environmental & Economic Analysis Argonne National Laboratories
Owen J. Viergutz
Executive Engineer New Generation Vehicles Chrysler Corp.
Margaret Walls
Fellow, Energy and Natural Resources Division Resources for the Future
OBSERVERS
Claude C. Gravatt
Science Advisor
National Institutes of Standards and Technology U.S. Department of Commerce
Barry McNutt
Policy Analyst Office of Energy Efficiency and Alternative Fuels Policy U.S. Department of Energy
Note: OTA appreciates and is grateful for the valuable assistance and thoughtful critiques provided by the advisory panel members. The panel does not, however, necessarily approve, disapprove, or endorse this report. OTA assumes full responsibility for the report and the accu racy of its contents.
Project Staff
Peter D. Blair
Assistant Director Industry, Commerce, and International Security Division
Emilia L. Govan
Program Director Energy. Transportation, and Infrastructure Program
PRINCIPAL STAFF
Steven Plotkin
Project Director
Gregory Eyring
Assistant Project Director
Eric Gille
Research Assistant
CONTRACTORS
Carol Clark
Editor
Energy and Environmental Analysis, Inc.
K.G. Duleep
D.E. Gushee
D.E. Gushee, Inc.
Michael Wang
Consultant
/ADMINISTRATIVE STAFF
Marsha Fenn
Office Administrator
Tina Aikens
Administrative Secretary
Gay Jackson
PC Specialist
Lillian Chapman
Division Administrator
Reviewers
John Alic
Office of Technology Assessment
Wolfgang Berg
Mercedes Benz
William Boehly
National Highway Traffic Safety Administration
Mark Delucchi
Institute for Transportation Studies University of California, Davis
Kevin Dopart
Office of Technology Assessment
Michael Epstein
U.S. Council for Automotive Research
Barry Felrice
National Highway Traffic Safety Administration
Kenneth Freeman
Office of Technology Assessment
Kathleen Fulton
Office of Technology Assessment
Michael Gage
CALSTART
John Gully
Advanced Research Projects Agency
Elizabeth Gunn
Office of Technology Assessment
S. Yousef Hashimi
Office of Technology Assessment
A. Hayasaka
Toyota
Daniel A. Kirsch
Stanford University
Paul Komor
Office of Technology Assessment
Adrian Lund
Insurance Institute for Highway Safety
Joan Ogden
Center for Energy and Environmental Studies Princeton University
Philip Patterson
U.S. Department of Energy
H. Pero
European Commission
M. Salmon
General Motors Corp.
Ray Smith
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
Rao Valisetty
ALCOA
Robert Williams
Center for Energy and Environmental Studies Princeton University
Robert White
U.S. General Accounting Office
Ronald York
General Motors Corp.
Karl-Heinz Ziwica
BMW
Workshop Participants
WORKSHOP ON ADVANCED AUTO SAFETY-SEPTEMBER 12, 1994
Nabih Bedewi
National Crash Analysis Office Center George Washington University
Kennerly Digges
National Crash Analysis Office Center George Washington University
Leonard Evans
General Motors NAO, R&D Center
Automotive Safety and Health Research
Charming Ewing
Snell Memorial Foundation
Thomas Hartman
Automotive Technology ALCOA
John Melvin
General Motors NAO, R&D Center
Automotive Safety and Health Research
Patrick M. Miller
MGA Research Corp.
Brian O'Neill
Insurance Institute for Highway Safety
George Parker
National Highway Traffic Safety Administration
U.S. Department of Transportation
Priya Prasad
Department of Advanced Vehicle Systems Engineering Ford Motor Co.
WORKSHOP ON ADVANCED AUTOMOTIVE TECHNOLOGIES-APRIL 19-20, 1995
Tom Asmus
Chrysler Corp.
Jeff Bentley
Arthur D. Little, Inc.
Christopher E. Borroni-Bird
Chrysler Corp.
Rolf Buchheim
Volkswagen AG
Andrew F. Burke
University of California at Davis Institute of Transportation Studies
Alan Cocconi
AC Propulsion, Inc.
Kenneth Dircks
Ballard Power Systems
Robert Fleming
Ballard Power Systems
Siegfried Friedmann
BMW AG
Thomas Klaiber
Daimler Benz AG
James F. Miller
Argonne National Laboratory
Timothy Moore
Rock Mountain Institute
Larry Oswald
General Motors
Harold Polz
Mercedes Benz
Charles Risch
Partnership for a New Generation of Vehicles Ford Motor Co.
Marc Ross
University of Michigan
Ray Smith
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
Al Sobey Independent Consultant
Ro Sullivan
U.S. Department of Energy
Raymond A. Sutula
U.S. Department of Energy
David Swan
University of CA at Davis Institute of Transportation. Studies
Swathy Swathirajan
General Motors
Donald Vissers
Argonne National Laboratory
Ronald E. York
General Motors
Book Contents👉
Chapter 1 Executive Summary
Chapter 2 Introduction and Context
Chapter3 Technologies for Advanced Vehicles Performance and Cost Expectations
Chapter 4 Advanced Vehicles Technical Potential and Costs
Chapter 5 Advanced Automotive R&D Programs: An International Comparison
Appendix A Method for Evaluating Vehicle Performance
Appendix B Methodology: Technology Price Estimates
